With the winter holiday season upon us, ECFR is pleased to share the most popular policy papers and articles we published this year. Thanks to you, our dear readers, for following our work over the last 12 months!
2024 was a year of intense geopolitical shifts and growing uncertainty, setting the stage for critical developments in 2025. It was marked by key elections, including those in the European Parliament, France, Georgia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
ECFR’s third edition of the European Sentiment Compass takes a candid look at the EU’s self-perception in a year of wars and elections, drawing a parallel to the titular character in the movie Barbie, who sees herself as more perfect than reality suggests.
Ukraine’s fight for survival also continues to dominate global discourse, with three potential scenarios for the war offering starkly different outcomes. In the Middle East, the Gaza conflict has escalated tensions in the region, testing European principles as the International Criminal Court weighs actions against Netanyahu, raising questions about accountability and international law.
In the US, Donald Trump’s return to power is already sending shockwaves internationally, impacting NATO cohesion, relations between the US and Turkey, and prompting strategic moves by Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, Europe is grappling with questions around its future economic resilience and security infrastructure, navigating challenges posed by China and the implications of a Trump-Vance administration, while also debating the importance of the Mercosur free-trade agreement.
As the year closes, the world is preparing for a volatile 2025—defined by unresolved conflicts, shifting alliances, and urgent global decisions.
October marked a year since the war in Gaza began, with other regional actors increasingly being drawn into the conflict. Developments include Israeli attacks on Lebanon, and rising tensions between Iran and Israel. The year ended with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the emergence of a new but uncertain chapter for Syria.
As ever, ECFR’s researchers have examined the great strategic challenges confronting Europeans during this period.
Here are the ten most popular policy briefs, commentaries, and policy alerts published in 2024.
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Policy Briefs
- A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament electionsby Simon Hix, Kevin Cunningham, Susi Dennison, Imogen Learmonth
The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a shift to the right in many countries and could mean that a populist right coalition emerges with a majority for the first time
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
Shifting US priorities and a degrading security environment – not to mention the possibility of a second Trump presidency – mean Europeans finally have to take more responsibility for their own security
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
China is strengthening its ties to the Gulf in areas well beyond the energy sector. The EU clearly has stakes in the region, but it should not try to directly counter China’s influence. It should instead build its own Gulf partnerships
Like the titular character in the movie “Barbie”, the EU is prone to regarding itself as more perfect than it really is. This year’s European Sentiment Compass lays bare the EU’s blind spots – and explains why ignoring them could have long-term repercussions for democracy inside the bloc
Commentaries
- Ukraine’s survival: Three scenarios for the war in 2024 by Gustav Gressel
Russia has gained the upper hand in its war on Ukraine. To reverse Moscow’s progress, the West will need to invest more in supporting Kyiv. With this in mind, here are three scenarios for what could happen in 2024
The establishment hates Donald Trump and Trump voters hate the establishment. In this second instalment of ECFR’s Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro explains why Europeans need to understand the dynamics that underpin this toxic relationship
Western policymakers should study the lessons of the Minsk agreements – and drop any illusions about the ways in which Russia supposedly acts
Turkey’s backing of Hamas has left it out of diplomatic processes and further strained its ties with the US. However, its recent decision to approve Sweden’s NATO membership could be an opportunity for Western diplomats to patch things up
On 5 November, Americans will elect their new president. But with just two weeks to go, neither Harris nor Trump has a decisive lead
Should Donald Trump win November’s US election, his choice of J.D. Vance as a running mate suggests huge shocks to US policy on China, trade, and security are around the corner. Europeans must respond decisively
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
Deepening ties with Mercosur countries makes perfect sense as part of the EU’s de-risking efforts to diversify economic ties away from China. Further delays in signing a free trade deal would push Latin America closer to China’s orbit – for good
The security challenge posed by Chinese electric vehicles is in many ways greater – and trickier to solve – than that of 5G networks. With such cars entering the European market at growing speed, policymakers need to move swiftly
- Der Untergang: As Trump returns, Putin will reap the rewards of Europe’s inaction on Ukraine by Gustav Gressel
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
Policy alerts
As Geert Wilders announces a provisional coalition deal for a far-right government, Europeans should brace themselves for a new era of Dutch politics
The European Commission’s new defence industrial strategy sets out to strengthen the EU’s defence industry through common and local procurements. But it will need both financial and political buy-in to succeed
After weeks of rising tensions between Libya’s political elites, the country is nearing collapse. Europeans must act fast to avoid another conflict on their doorstep
The International Criminal Court has issued a historic arrest warrant for Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu. European governments must defend the court’s independence and uphold international law
Ukraine has carried out its first strikes inside Russian territory with Western-made, long-range missiles; Vladimir Putin responded by launching a new type of weapon. NATO allies must now send a clear deterrence message without following Russia’s escalatory rhetoric
What started as a promising border agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan may end up further weakening the government in Yerevan and undermining its reform agenda
Disagreement over expanding the EU’s energy-related restrictions makes a ban on Russian LNG imports unlikely. At the same time, potential measures on helium suggest Europeans are keen to avoid becoming dependent on the growing Russian industry
In the lead up to the European Parliament election, rising Russian disinformation threatens to sway voters. No matter the election result, the EU should take coordinated and assertive action
Kamala Harris has completed the Democratic ticket by choosing Tim Walz as her running-mate. Here’s what his vice presidency could mean for the future of US foreign policy
Putin’s appointment of Andrei Belousov as defence minister signals the Kremlin’s push to rapidly modernise the Russian military – and further reshuffles may be on the horizon
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.
