Three months after Assad’s fall, Syrians remain hugely relieved about the collapse of the former regime. The possibility of a better future has replaced the guarantee of permanent despair. But, talking to Syrians in the country during a recent ECFR visit, it is clear that initial euphoria is already turning to concern amid the immensity of the country’s challenges.[1]

Syria’s transformation represents a huge strategic opportunity for Europeans to reverse the cycle of conflict that has fed migration and terrorism. But the only way to address these challenges—and facilitate the voluntary return of Syrian refugees—is to heavily invest in securing a stable, secure and economically viable Syria. Without a surge of international support, the country’s trajectory could quicky worsen.

While Europeans are now focused on mobilising resources for Ukraine, they should also recognise that a failure to support Syria will give Russia space to cement its presence in the eastern Mediterranean. Syrians do not see Russia in the same negative light as Iran and are willing to engage pragmatically with Moscow if it helps meet the country’s immediate needs. As such Europeans urgently need to increase assistance not just to help stabilise the country but also to cement their geopolitical influence.

The warning signs

Syrians are awaiting a clearer roadmap from their new ruler, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—the former al-Qaeda linked group which seized power in December—about what happens next. So far, HTS is saying the right things about the country’s future—the recent National Dialogue was a more inclusive process than the country has seen in decades. But it was also rushed, non-transparent and there is growing concern among some Syrians over HTS tightening its control. The group’s consolidation of power may be understandable given the challenges of taking over after decades of Assad’s dictatorship. But given the sweeping initial seizure of power, much now hangs on HTS’s decisions regarding the make-up, independence and actions of a promised new incoming transitional government—to replace the current interim structure—to see whether it is committed to genuine inclusivity.

More immediately worrying is that the economic situation has worsened since Assad’s fall. Syrian’s expectations of improved conditions are not being met and most remain focused on day-to-day survival. The country’s ongoing economic collapse is marked by HTS’s inability to pay state salaries, capital controls, a tenfold increase in bread prices and a worsening provision of electricity supplies. This is occurring despite HTS’s initial promises, notably a 400% state salary increase, which heightened expectations—and fed subsequent disappointment. The crisis has been exacerbated by a collapse in state revenues, due in part to the end of illicit captagon trading, and the loss of Iranian oil supplies. With 90% of the population already living below the poverty line, the humanitarian situation is sure to deteriorate further amid international funding shortfalls.

This combined situation risks exacerbating tensions on the ground, particularly given the lack of effective state security institutions. Conditions are beginning to deteriorate outside Damascus with alleged sectarian attacks and economic crimes, particularly kidnappings for ransom, increasing. A further deterioration could push HTS to tighten their security control. It could also provoke the mobilisation of militia groups and lead former regime elements to take advantage of the instability to assert their own power. Meanwhile, Islamic State is seeking to exploit the political and economic disappointment by peeling away disgruntled HTS members. And increasingly aggressive Israeli positioning and Turkish pressure on the Kurds risks feeding this wider instability.

Six ways to support Syria

To this backdrop, European capitals and the EU urgently need to step-up their focus on helping stabilise Syria before the moment of opportunity is lost. Before political and economic disappointments derail a more stable future, there are six steps Europeans can take.

Increase immediate direct support

Europeans have thus far focused on sanctions relief, but this opening cannot meet Syria’s immediate needs. The EU and its partners like Britain and Norway need to provide quick and direct assistance to facilitate humanitarian aid, key service provision and salary payments to help keep the country afloat. This assistance should not be conditioned on political progress given that Syria risks complete collapse, which would end any prospect of a positive transition.

Europeans should offer immediate support to the electricity sector in particular given its impact on living conditions, the wider economy and the security environment (such as through the provision of street lighting). Much of Syria’s electricity infrastructure is of Western origin and needs immediate repairs which Europeans companies could support. The health and water sectors are other core public services requiring direct assistance. If Western actors are unwilling to provide wider support to HTS, they could instead support ministries engaged in these areas.

Intensify rather than slow engagement with HTS

HTS is playing a delicate balancing act, focusing on consolidating power while seeking external legitimisation. Europeans, whose initial intense engagement with Damascus is slowing, should use this HTS positioning to both support but also keep pressing the group towards an inclusive political process. This should include the participation of Syrian Kurds with the recent breakthrough between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party an opening to facilitate this effort.

Europeans can also press for greater UN engagement in assisting the Syrian-led political process and use longer term conditionality to incentivise this political goal, tying carrots such as reconstruction funding and favourable trade agreements to progress.

Support civil society

Civil society organisations and NGOs have new space to operate across the country, and will be key to positively shaping its political and socio-economic future. While some Syrians are already fearful of criticising HTS, the group has already backed down on several issues, including the nature of the school curriculum, in response to pressure. These organisations will be crucial to preventing HTS establishing tighter political control and ensuring an inclusive future. With USAID funding cuts hitting Syrian NGOs hard, Europeans should increase support to these groups, providing them with financial, technical and capacity aid to help cement their stabilising role in the new Syria.

Facilitate governance support

HTS is overwhelmed, working with hollowed out institutions and inexperienced leaders. NGO voices also caution against reading too much into HTS governance successes in Idlib, which was far easier to manage and where progress was underpinned by NGO and external support. HTS doesn’t have the expertise or capacity to manage nationwide control. Europeans should press the group to recognise its capacity constraints. This means reaching out to Syrian actors beyond HTS cadres, including in the security sphere. Europeans can also offer increased technical and capacity support to help address immediate constraints.

This effort would benefit from greater international alignment. While not looking to replicate Gaza’s long-term reliance on external support, Europeans could work to create a new international body modelled on the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee which coordinated the channelling of aid to Palestinians. This should include a focus on identifying which countries will work with which sectors and ministries.

Make sanctions relief more effective

Current US and European exemptions, while welcome, are still too narrow to address the chilling impact of wider US measures. Europeans, together with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), should press Washington for further relief, making the case for a shared interest in a stable Syria, including as a means to help the US withdraw from the region and for US business, including oil companies, to return to the country. This should include a long term renewal of General License 24, which expires in July. This could help enable much-need GCC financial support as initial Qatari financial promises have not materialised due to US sanctions.

Europeans could also engage the private sector in direct partnerships to work around sanctions obstacles and support key initiatives such as regenerating electricity infrastructure. They could also assess the prospect of special purpose vehicles (such as the former Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) to channel financial support into Syria.

Press for international alignment on Syria

Securing US backing for this will require pushing back against reported Israeli opposition to sanctions relief, which, alongside ongoing Israeli military strikes, aims to keep Syria weak and prevent strengthened Turkish influence. Europeans should emphasise to their Israeli and American counterparts that continued pressure will feed conflict and pose a deeper threat to Western and Israeli interests—including by giving Iran space to regroup in Syria.

HTS has had a conciliatory approach towards Israel since seizing power in Damascus and has sought to balance Turkish influence with outreach to other actors. Europeans should also make the case that this is a welcome opportunity to dial down regional tensions. A unified international position in support of Syrian stability is the best way to address international security interests.

Ultimately Europeans need to decide how seriously they will support Syrians wanting to turn their country around. The moment for action is now. Europe’s current slow response will do little to address the red lights beginning to flash.

[1] This piece is based on an author visit to Syria and interviews with Syrians the week of 17 February