“The best reconstruction is when it is not needed in the first place.” So remarked German chancellor Olaf Scholz to the Ukraine Recovery Conference earlier this summer. He was correct in his assessment – but large gaps remain between actions and words. Western allies of Ukraine are not yet truly accounting for recovery and reconstruction costs in their thinking around the war. Yet a ‘prevention first’ approach would lead to different decisions. Providing enhanced defences to Ukraine would be cheaper in the long run, not just through preventing physical destruction but by allowing something resembling normal life to resume. It would also help demonstrate to voters in Europe that leaders are investing now to save later.

As things stand, Ukraine’s reconstruction will already require the largest economic recovery plan in Europe since the end of the second world war. The World Bank calculates that the cost could reach $486 billion.

The significant destruction in Ukraine comes not only from Russian ground troops, but also from firing positions inside Russia. As NATO membership is not immediately on the cards, the physical damage can be minimised by Western partners providing Ukraine with a robust air defence network. They should accompany this with long-range missiles approved for use against targets on Russian territory. Military considerations aside, this would quickly dampen future reconstruction costs.

Berlin has not yet given Ukraine German-made Taurus cruise missiles, which would allow Kyiv to hit Russian targets deep behind the frontline, including military bases, storage facilities, logistics hubs, and airfields from which Russia is launching attacks. Similarly, the United States is restricting Ukraine from using long-range tactical missile systems to strike deep within Russian territory.

If allies change their position, Ukraine’s population and infrastructure can receive sufficient protection – with potentially transformational effects. Europeans and Ukrainians will be able to move towards deeper talks on the recovery process – and they will be able to do so sooner, and at lower cost.

Among the many benefits, such protection will provide boosts in three main areas.

People

The return of working-age individuals to Ukraine is an important prerequisite for the country’s successful recovery and economic stabilisation. Research suggests that Ukrainians staying away is having a major impact on the country’s economy, causing it to lose between 2.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent of GDP annually. The cumulative economic losses over the next ten years may reach $113 billion. The security situation is known to be a key factor in Ukrainian forced migrants’ decisions about returning. An air defence system that protects the population – civilians and members of the armed forces, the majority of which were civilians before the full-scale invasion – could encourage the return of thousands, if not millions, of people.

Energy

Protecting Ukraine’s skies will also protect its energy grid. Russian attacks have destroyed around 80 per cent of Ukraine’s thermal generation and a third of the country’s hydroelectric generation. As a result, it is even more vital to defend the remaining generation capacity. In April 2024, the Russian military destroyed the turbines, generator, and transformer of the Trypillia power plant – the largest electricity provider for three Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv – using just a few missiles. The Ukrainian armed forces saw the incoming attack on air-defence system screens but lacked the necessary missiles to intercept. Experts estimate that the power plant’s full restoration may take up to seven years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars. This could have been avoided had the country had sufficient means to protect the plant in the first place.

Allied investment in defence systems will also ease the logistical burden of repairing damaged infrastructure across such a large landmass – and further encourage Ukrainians to return, safe in the knowledge they will be able to turn the lights on at home or access the energy needed to run their business.

Business and trade

During the first year of the war, Ukraine lost 30-35 per cent of its GDP. Micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises are the backbone of the country’s economy and provide 74 per cent of its jobs. Yet they have suffered immensely. The average financial loss per company amounts  to $227,000.

Ukrainian businesses are heavily reliant on air defence protection, including those which depend on the country’s ports. Russia has exploited Ukraine’s weak defence capabilities by destroying over 200 port infrastructure facilities, slashing the country’s import and export capacities. Similarly, many large businesses and industries rely on static infrastructure and non-transferrable assets, which prevents them from relocating. All depend on air defences; all generate taxes for the state and provide resilience for the government.

Solid air defence protection would also serve as a strong signal of confidence to foreign investors in Ukraine’s economy. This is especially the case if the country’s European neighbours closed the skies over western Ukraine. The Ukrainian government is examining how it might reopen the air space in this part of the country. This would significantly bolster Ukraine’s economic development and facilitate passenger travel.

*

To reduce reconstruction costs, Ukraine and its allies must mobilise resources now to defeat Russia and secure lasting peace. The most effective and cost-efficient solution for peace and reconstruction would be Ukraine’s accession to NATO. The next-best option remains the mantra that the best reconstruction tomorrow is weapons today.