Problem

Protesters have flooded Georgia’s streets after the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party halted the country’s accession to the European Union. The announcement came a few hours after the European Parliament passed a resolution calling for a new election under international observation and sanctions against Georgian officials. This follows the EU freezing Georgia’s accession and financial assistance in June after the government passed a law resembling Russia’s “foreign agents” legislation that requires organisations with more than 20 per cent foreign to register as “pursuing the interest of a foreign power”. But Brussels’s attempts to reverse Georgia’s slide towards Moscow are clearly failing.

Instead, with yesterday’s announcement GD has made clear it will pursue its own agenda – one that could grow more aggressive and sever what remains of its ties to the West, crippling the EU’s influence in the region. It will not make concessions or yield to international pressure over election irregularities, will not restore democracy, and will not repeal Kremlin-like laws.

Solution

The EU cannot give up on Georgia. The odds of failure are high, given the government’s control over police, power structures, and potential Russian backing. Therefore, a dual-track approach is essential to address the crisis.

To demonstrate support for protesters and keep the momentum of democratic resistance, the EU should use high-level statements and visits and coordinate closely with pro-EU president Salome Zourabishvili. It should also stick to its position calling for new elections, as this represents the only viable path to stability. Additionally, the EU should offer an opportunity for pro-EU bureaucrats to play a role in de-escalating the situation to ensure they see an alternative to GD’s repression and isolation of Georgia.

To maintain pressure on the GD-led government, member states should urgently impose sanctions on officials and political leaders responsible for electoral fraud and human rights violations, including the use of violence against peaceful protesters. These sanctions should extend to Bidzina Ivanishvili, the architect of GD’s policies and a key figure in Georgia’s democratic decline. This would send a strong message to government officials implementing GD policies and give them the opportunity to oppose them, joining officials already distancing themselves from GD’s agenda.

Context

Since the 26 October election, Georgian protesters have refused to give up their fight, condemning GD’s undemocratic stance and for jeopardising their European future. For the first time, MPs and diplomatic staff are also coming out and protesting this decision. Over 100 officials from the foreign ministry have signed a letter expressing their disagreement with the government decision as it contradicts Georgia’s strategic goals and its constitutional commitment to EU and NATO integration.

The government will likely intensify its pressure on civil society and implement the “foreign agents” law and the law on “family values”. In the case of continued violence on the streets, Russia may intensify its hybrid warfare in an effort to deter further opposition to the government. If Georgia falls further under Russian influence, more destabilisation could follow in Armenia and Moldova, leaving the EU with less leverage to effect change and defend its interests in the region.