Problem

After only three months in office, France’s government led by prime minister Michel Barnier has fallen following a vote of no confidence. His successor, who President Emmanuel Macron will put forward in the next couple of days, could suffer a similar fate. European governments are concerned that prolonged political and economic turmoil in the European Union’s second largest member state will affect their capacity to demonstrate unity and leadership – especially in the face of heightened threats to EU security policy posed by Russian president Vladimir Putin and America’s president-elect, Donald Trump.

France is a key supporter of Ukraine and a leading voice on European “strategic autonomy”. President Emmanuel Macron remains active on the international stage, as demonstrated with upcoming “Notre Dame summit” and the announcement of France and Saudi Arabia working together to co-host a conference on creating a Palestinian state. Given its military and diplomatic importance, France will always matter in security discussions, irrespective of its domestic political turmoil.

But new funding is badly needed in European defence and Ukrainian support, and there are major limitations to France’s financial commitments. If the country’s 2024 budget is provisionally rolled over for 2025, the projected €3.3 billion increase planned for defence could be delayed or suspended. French bilateral support for Ukraine, which relies largely on multiple budgetary tricks and inter-ministerial solidarity, will face further hurdles: even in 2024, France’s military aid to Ukraine did not reach the promised €3 billion.

Solution

European countries and institutions – including Poland, some Nordic states, the Baltic states, NATO, and the European Commission – which care most about supporting Ukraine and ensuring European defence capabilities should keep France engaged in the relevant debates. They should emphasise that France is an indispensable part of the solution to achieve effective Ukrainian defence and European security; and how, in the event of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, security guarantees for Kyiv from France (and the UK) will be essential.

Europeans must also fill in the leadership gaps exacerbated by France’s domestic turmoil. German political parties, amid their own political campaigning ahead of February’s snap election, need to demonstrate that they can lift the country’s debt brake to allow greater defence and security spending, and support for Ukraine. Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and Sweden should also highlight that, despite their one-time description as “frugal” countries, they are open to the idea of using European bonds to fund European defence. The time is also ripe for closer EU-UK cooperation, given the United Kingdom’s crucial role in bolstering European security and providing support for Ukraine.

Overall, with France mired in domestic issues, other European countries will need to show political creativity and readiness to take ambitious action: developing a Ukraine support plan before the new American administration begins; exploring European defence bonds; and building a new EU-UK security compact. They should seek to achieve these measures within the EU framework where possible – but through a coalition of the willing where necessary.

Context

Should Macron fail to secure cross-party support for his next prime ministerial candidate(s), he may face rising pressure to submit an early resignation – a possibility he strongly refutes. But an early election, with National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen in pole position to win the presidency, would raise broader questions about France’s commitment to Ukraine and the EU. Even before then, RN’s growing leverage in French politics could impact domestic policy-level debates on prioritising national defence over support for Ukraine.