US president-elect Donald Trump has vowed to bring peace to the Middle East. But his return to the White House is likely to bring Gaza only more death and destruction. He is already showering Israel with statements of blanket support and overstaffing his administration with some of the most uncompromising pro-Israeli hawks. European leaders now face an imperative: to step up where the United States has faltered and prevent an unfolding dystopian reality.

Trump’s Israel team

Since winning re-election, Trump wasted no time in appointing a cadre of pro-Israel hardliners to his administration who vehemently oppose a Gaza ceasefire and support Israeli annexation of the West Bank. Mike Huckabee, a deeply conservative evangelical Christian and pro-Israel hardliner, is set to become the next US ambassador to Israel. He has said “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian” and called the two-state solution “irrational and unworkable.” Trump’s pick for national security advisor, Mike Waltz, has meanwhile called for the next administration to “let Israel finish the job” against Hamas in Gaza. His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, espouse similar views.

If this Trump administration were to push for an end to the Gaza war, the terms of the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, would likely include maintaining the Israeli military occupation of Gaza and entrenching the occupation of the West Bank. The US would not press Israel for concessions in this situation if European and Arab leaders did not press the US. Trump would most likely allow Israel to annex the West Bank if it ended the Gaza war. Any Trump-Netanyahu agreement for Gaza’s future would build on Trump’s 2020 peace plan that would legitimise Israeli annexation and Palestinian subjugation. It’s hard to imagine Trump abandoning a plan that has his name on it to include Palestinian demands.

Hopes on a ‘lame duck’ Biden

Palestinian leaders may have hoped that the outgoing US president, Joe Biden, would at least use the period leading up to Trump’s inauguration to challenge Israeli actions in Gaza. Between 5 November, when a new US president is elected, and 20 January, when they take office, the incumbent president enters a ‘lame duck’ period. They don’t have as much power, but they are also free of any electoral pressure or political ambitions. US action now could still send an important normative message on holding Israel to account. It would encourage European countries to adopt similar measures, even if Trump overturns any actions Biden takes during this period.

However, hoping for US action in the coming weeks is likely to disappoint. Biden has helped secure a ceasefire in Lebanon, but his support for Israel never wavered. Since November, the Biden administration has actively pressed senators to vote against a proposed resolution by the Democrat senator, Bernie Sanders, to condition aid to Israel; vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza; and called the issuing of arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court “outrageous”.

Despite differences between Democrats and Republicans, both parties are fundamentally pro-Israel. Biden’s advisors, Brett McGurk, Jake Sullivan, Anthony Blinken, and Kamala Harris, all support Israel. The outgoing president likely considers any last-minute change of policies on Israel as something that would taint his legacy rather than the opposite. Biden’s positions have actually aligned with those of the incoming administration, amplifying Israel’s sense of impunity and making it more difficult to press it into a ceasefire deal with Hamas or curb its settlement activities in the West Bank.

European powers of persuasion

Given Biden’s reluctance and the looming threats of Trump’s administration, European leaders should no longer defer to the United States on this critical issue. Europe is far more affected by the spillover effects from Gaza and Lebanon than the US. European countries already experience domestic polarisation over Gaza and their credibility and political capital are compromised with much of the world as a result of their inability to improve the Palestinian plight. Furthermore, the wars in Gaza and Lebanon have increased refugee flows in the Mediterranean. More than 150,000 Gazans are already in Egypt, having fled since 7 October; many are making their way to Libya.

Collaboration between European capitals and Arab Gulf partners could lay the groundwork to push Washington towards a fair and peaceful future for Israelis and Palestinians. Hamas has said it is ready. Now the Israeli government must come back to the table. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which hold greater influence over Trump, will be key in countering the Netanyahu agenda and promoting a more balanced approach.

European and Arab states will rightly want to show they are open to engaging with the Trump administration. That would facilitate Israel’s regional integration and end the fighting in Gaza. However, European leaders should avoid supporting any US proposals that could worsen the inequality between Israelis and Palestinians, such as Trump’s 2020 plan or an expansion of the Abraham Accords, as they will only drive further violence.

European and Arab Gulf states should warn the new US administration of the risks of giving Israel a blank check to pursue its goals. Left unchecked, these Israeli actions risk further regional destabilisation. More importantly for Trump, they could thwart his administration’s ambition to achieve what Biden could not – persuade Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel as a state.

Lessons from Riyadh

To normalise relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia demands a ceasefire deal in Gaza and the implementation of a two-state solution. In recent weeks, it has hardened its position. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman condemned Israeli actions in Gaza as genocidal. Perhaps this is a means of making clear to Trump that persuading Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel will be no easy task and Washington will need to make concessions.

Like Riyadh, Europeans should look to pre-emptively make their position clear to Trump. This should include a formal assessment by the European Commission to suspend the EU’s association agreement with Israel and ban settlement products. The outgoing EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, called for both of these measures in his last foreign affairs council meeting. The European Union could also apply pressure by imposing sanctions on Israeli military units involved in human rights abuses, extremist politicians advocating violence, and settlement regional councils and organisations that fund Israeli settlement activity, such as the World Zionist Organization.

Shaping the trajectory of the conflict

European actions can still shape the trajectory of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by acting swiftly in partnership with Saudi Arabia. Such actions can also show that European leaders can challenge the destabilising policies of a Trump administration bent on empowering Israeli maximalism. This means continuing to push the only viable track to resolve this crisis – a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and a real pathway for Palestinian self-determination predicated on ending the Israeli occupation. A sustainable solution cannot favour Israel at the expense of Palestinians. This is a chance to salvage European credibility as a global actor committed to human rights, peace, and stability.