As global warming melts ice caps, the Arctic is attracting interest from major powers for its increasingly accessible vast oil and gas reserves, as well as ample deposits of minerals, making it a new frontier of global geoeconomic competition. Indeed, both China and Russia see opportunity, and are expanding their polar capabilities.

Attempting to compete with these geoeconomic rivals, US president Joe Biden, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, and Finnish president Alexander Stubb recently announced the establishment of the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort on the sidelines of the 75^th NATO summit. The pact, with the apt initialism ICE, will create a collaborative framework to build icebreaker ships among the three countries to increase the number of polar-capable ships in the coming years. Icebreakers are necessary to gain access to the region, and as new sea routes open, ICE will become even more important. But to be able to seriously challenge Chinese and Russian initiatives, signing the ICE pact is only the first step.

Setting sail

The plan envisions to build “some 70-90 ships in the coming decade”, but achieving this will be an uphill battle. To give it the best chance, the ICE signatories should:

• Scale-up supply chains and construction: While Russia added two icebreakers to its fleet between 2021 and 2022, the last one the United States built was 47 years ago. As the US plans to restart production, partnering with Finland (which possesses world-class icebreaker shipyards) and Canada would help scale-up construction capabilities. To further support this, the ICE signatories should also look at building transnational supply chains for ships components and know-how.
• Fill the current gap by sharing assets: Due to the complexities and cost of construction, the new ICE-built fleet would not set sail for years – time that the West can ill-afford in a region of strategic importance. ICE members should therefore develop a system for sharing the existing ships among themselves to cover respective needs if national fleets are not sufficient at any given time.
• Grow capabilities by expanding the pact: To boost Western capabilities to access the Arctic and stand up to growing Russian and Chinese presence, the more members the better. Including other European NATO members like Sweden, Norway, and Denmark would allow ICE to benefit from economies of scale and increased expertise and construction capabilities, all while sending a message of political unity when the alliance faces challenges in the Arctic.

A geoeconomic asset for Europe

ICE offers a crucial opportunity to Europeans. At a time when Western actors are losing most of their shipbuilding capabilities to China, icebreakers are niche assets that will be increasingly relevant as ice caps melt. Thanks to ICE, European countries can retain geoeconomic leverage in an expanding market: increased cooperation would fuel innovation and allow Europe to better cater to the increasing demand for polar ships. Although less futuristic than chips or AI, icebreakers will be another component of economic competition, and Europeans should play all the cards they have to grow their capabilities.