It is now many years since the European Union welcomed a new member to its midst. The last occasion was in 2013, when Western Balkan state Croatia joined. That country’s regional neighbours are all EU candidates or potential candidates, but progress on their entry has been slow to non-existent. Now, however, there is new interest inside the bloc in bringing Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia in from the cold. But to achieve this, all of these states must make greater progress on a number of fronts. Among these is the requirement to cut carbon emissions within their own borders.

In 2020, the six states reached a milestone in their efforts to align with EU climate goals. They signed the Sofia Declaration on the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans. This move entailed endorsing the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans (GAWB) and thereby committed all of them to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The GAWB is an adaptation of the European Green Deal tailored to the circumstances of the Western Balkans, and it ranges across a number of sectors. Perhaps nothing might better kill two birds with one stone, however, than rapid advances in the GAWB’s transport element.

Road transport alone accounts for 15 per cent of the region’s greenhouse gas emissions,  and it is fast-growing. Yet progress is slow: in recent decades, investment in both rail and road has been weak, and these networks are now in dire need of vast amounts of basic maintenance, let alone the upgrades needed to promote more sustainable travel. Public transport systems across the Western Balkans are painfully inadequate, resulting in unreliable and inefficient services, particularly in rural and less urbanised areas. This forces much of the population into using private vehicles to get around, with fleets that are often outdated and thus more polluting. The region thus faces a dual challenge: how to reduce emissions from an increasingly congested road network while simultaneously developing sustainable, reliable, and efficient public transport infrastructure.

But this is not just an environmental question: working together on better connecting people and economies can foster stronger cooperation between Western Balkan and boost the region’s competitiveness. Progress under GAWB would strengthen integration within the region’s Common Regional Market, which is intended to facilitate integration with the EU’s single market.

Some transport-specific forms of integration are in place, although these remain sorely under-developed. For example, the six countries set up the Transport Community in 2017 as part of the Berlin process, whereby they take steps to demonstrate their commitment to accession-related reforms. The purpose of the Transport Community is precisely to promote the regional integration of transport networks and sustainability within the sector. The community and its members have adopted a strategy aimed at delivering on these goals. Positive outcomes include Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans adopted in cities like Belgrade, Sarajevo, and Pristina. These plans aim to integrate public transport and improve infrastructure for walking and cycling

The EU’s support could make or break success in this area. Its Western Balkans Investment Framework dedicates 50 per cent of its portfolio to the transport sector. The funding aims to restore and upgrade 1,457 km of railway lines by 2030. Over its 15 years of activity through this framework, the EU has invested €15.1 billion in sustainable transport in the region. Positive developments include the modernisation and electrification of 120 km of railway line from Vore in central Albania to Hani i Hotit on the border with Montenegro, promoted by WBIF along with support from the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Discussions with experts suggest that more funds are needed to make deeper progress, but that the principal challenges are not just about money.[1] The region faces a lack of skills in this sector, poor implementation of domestic regulations, a lack of coordination among competent local ministries and agencies, and a low level of public awareness about environmental issues, including among the younger generations.

To address these shortcomings, the new European Commission should seize the opportunity to invest in Western Balkan transport and connectivity. This would support the broader decarbonisation mission, but the commission should also signal to the region’s states it expects stronger integration efforts in this area. A more comprehensive EU strategy would involve making further funding available to bring existing lines up to scratch and progress their electrification. This would provide viable alternatives to road transport within an integrated regional transport framework. It would also entail the EU working with the private sector and local authorities to increase investment in green mobility infrastructure. The strategy should aim to establish capacity building projects and training programmes to improve coordination among the relevant local institutions in each country. Public awareness should also be at its heart, as should civil society, which should be brought into the planning and decision-making processes for transport projects and policies, ensuring that local communities have a voice.

Radically upgrading Western Balkan transport would bring tangible results to the population that would positively benefit the EU. Public opinion in the region has has shown a steady decline for support for EU membership in the last three years. Showing what the future could look like as part of an integrated, modernised economy – and community – would further steady the EU’s place in the world as it seeks to stabilise its neighbourhood and demonstrate its credentials as a reliable partner and geopolitical player.

[1] Author discussion with Albanian policymaker, face to face, Tirana, June 2024; and author discussion with Montenegrin policymaker working on the European Green Agenda, face to face, Podgorica, June 2024.