Problem

South Korean president Yoon Suk-Yeol plunged one of the European Union’s most important partners in east Asia into domestic political turmoil when he tried to impose martial law on Tuesday. While the move was quickly overruled by a unanimous parliamentary vote, the ensuing political chaos will hinder Seoul’s role as a key European partner.

In the short term, the crisis will absorb South Korean politicians’ attention. Big foreign policy decisions, such as potential weapons deliveries to Ukraine, will be delayed as the country grapples with its political situation. Foreign policy had been Yoon’s most active and successful policy area, but he has now lost almost all legitimacy at home and faces impeachment and mass protests. Under such circumstances, his foreign policy agenda is at risk to lose all its steam. A preoccupied South Korea could also embolden Moscow and Pyongyang to further escalate their collaboration in Ukraine.

In the coming months, Yoon is unlikely to hold onto power for the two and a half years remaining of his term and could be impeached or forced to step down. A likely win of the opposition’s Democratic Party (DP) in the ensuing presidential election will complicate EU collaboration with Seoul on key geopolitical issues over the medium to long-term – from the war in Ukraine to economic coercion from China and North Korean belligerence. A DP administration would shift South Korea’s foreign policy focus towards engagement with China, Russia, and North Korea and away from European countries. It would also focus anew on historical issues around Japan’s colonial past in Korea, which would lead to a deterioration of currently improved ties with its neighbour and thwart opportunities for Europeans to tackle shared challenges together with both partners.

Response

Besides urging for calm, peaceful, and constitutional resolution of the matter, there is not much Europeans can do until the current political crisis in South Korea is resolved. Once a new government is in place, European policymakers should proactively engage Seoul early on to clearly convey the magnitude of shared geopolitical threats posed by Russia, China, and North Korea to the new administration in Seoul. It will be crucial to identify issues of mutual strategic interest. Increasing defence industrial cooperation could be one open door, as the expansion of South Korea’s defence industry has historically been a priority for progressive and conservative Korean governments alike.

Context

South Korea has so far limited itself to indirect military support for Kyiv, for example through a deal to send half a million 155mm shells to the United States, allowing Washington to free up deliveries of its own. However, over the past weeks, hopes had grown that Seoul may increase support for Ukraine and even consider directly providing weapons to Ukraine. This had become more urgent following the recent revelations that North Korea has dispatched soldiers to fight for Russia in Ukraine, a stark reminder of the now strong link between security issues in east Asia and Europe.

A change of government in South Korea could turn this approach on its head. The DP candidate Lee Jae-myung only narrowly lost the last presidential election to Yoon, and his party secured a landslide victory in this year’s parliamentary election. If Yoon’s impeachment on Saturday is unsuccessful, he will likely still be forced to resign by mounting pressure from the opposition, mass protests, and general strikes. Either way, European policymakers must prepare for a DP-rule on the horizon for the coming months.