In February 2024, nine months before he was elected for a second term as American president, Donald Trump posted on social media platform, Truth Social. “We should never give money anymore without the hope of a payback, or without “strings” attached,” he wrote. “The United States of America should be “stupid” no longer!”

The message arrived just as the US Senate voted on a $95.3 billion foreign-aid package that included $60 billion to support Ukraine, $14.1 billion on military assistance for Israel, and $9.2 billion on humanitarian assistance for Gaza. Now, with Trump back in the White House, diplomats fear that future US foreign policy will be a significant step away from America’s – arguably unsuccessful – attempt to highlight human rights as a key facet of the Biden administration.

Trump’s unpredictable nature, anti-European administration, and penchant for cosying up to dictators and authoritarian leaders could leave the European Union and its allies isolated in their efforts to uphold Western democratic values. In response, the EU should improve its crisis-management frameworks and prioritise cooperative international solutions while promoting policies that respect human rights and enhance regional stability.

Diplomacy with authoritarian leaders

Trump has made no secret of his admiration for some of the world’s most authoritarian leaders, including Mohammed bin Salman, China’s Xi Jinping, Abdel Fatah El-Sisi, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. In 2020, Trump even appeared to follow their similar approach, refraining from imposing sanctions on Chinese officials over the detention of Muslims in Xinjiang. The decision, which was largely due to ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, was the subject of speculation that economic interests may have influenced the administration to overlook human rights violations in the region.

During the 2016 to 2020 period, Trump also largely disregarded international treaties, undermined multilateral organisations, and threw away initiatives to protect citizens living under authoritarian regimes. For example, in 2018, America withdrew from the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) over what former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley described as a “chronic bias against Israel.” This was part of a broader trend of significant funding cuts to the UN Population Fund, the UN Program on HIV/AIDS, and the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine – and eventually the WHO, from which he attempted to withdraw the US altogether.

Now Trump’s second presidential victory means the US is likely to return to this impulsive and aggressive approach to diplomacy. America’s further potential lack of commitment to democratic alliances could, similar to Hungary’s approach, serve its policy goals by reducing the country’s reliance on multilateral frameworks. Furthermore, policies protecting human rights could plausibly make way for policies that prioritise American strategic interests at the expense of protecting basic freedoms and upholding international diplomatic standards.

Increased US detachment from alliances such as NATO would allow more unilateral action, support Trump’s “America First” economic stance, and reduce multilateral commitments to open up bilateral deals aimed at short-term economic gains.

Undoing gender equality

Trump’s previous administration frequently opposed UN-backed women’s rights initiatives. In 2019, for example, a confidential draft from the UN Commission on the Status of Women showed that the administration was starting to align with countries like Bahrain, Iraq, Philippines, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia on matters such as LGBT rights and women’s health. In doing so, Trump’s rhetoric marked a significant divergence from traditional democratic allies – and the liberal order advocated for by previous US presidents – on key social and cultural issues.

But now Trump’s renewed opposition to women’s rights, including reproductive freedom, is further embedded in his politicised take on gender issues. During the election campaign, attacks directed at his opponent Kamala Harris were frequently based on sex and race. At a societal level, he has made no secret of his support for the overturning of Roe vs. Wade; human rights groups warn this could go even further, for example curbing the availability of birth control. Much of this ideology is underpinned by the pro-Trump ‘Project 2025’ handbook, created by conservative think-tank the Heritage Foundation. It advocates for a gendered, patriarchal view of society which puts the rights of women, LGBTQ+, and ethnic minority communities at risk. According to Human Rights Watch, Project 2025’s policies are potentially abusive and racially discriminatory.

But the EU has already had to navigate security, defence, and trade in the context of previous challenges imposed by Trump – and human rights ended up last on the priority list. Europe’s citizens did not let Trump off the hook, however: thousands of women took to Europe’s streets to protest against his election in 2016. Then, in May 2022, European Parliament president Roberta Metsola also insisted that the EU’s position as being in favour of abortion rights was settled. She said, “We can discuss the US position. But here in Europe, there is no discussion.”

Migration

In 2017, the US retreated from international cooperation on migration by withdrawing from the United Nations Global Compact on Migration. As such, despite escalating conflicts in the Middle East, eastern Europe, and the Horn of Africa, displaced peoples are unlikely to receive any support from Washington in the coming years.

In Trump’s previous term, he introduced an ‘extreme vetting’ strategy to prevent the entry of “radical Islamic terrorists,” whereby the US introduced a religious test for refugees from Muslim-majority countries, prioritising Christians and individuals from minority religions over those practising Islam. But while such moves horrified international critics, this time around Trump’s “America first” stance is compounded by migration being a top issue for election voters. According to exit polls, 40 per cent said most ‘irregular’ US immigrants should be deported, while 56 per cent said they should be offered a chance to apply for legal status.

As such, immigration now plays a significant role in US foreign policy, compounded by leaders like Trump portraying immigrants as national security threats. For example, the previous Trump administration enacted discriminatory policies including travel bans on individuals from Muslim-majority and African countries, and advocated a “zero tolerance” policy which resulted in around 5,000 children being registered as separated from their families at the US and Mexico border.

Now he is back in the White House, Trump can make good on his promise to launch the largest deportation effort in US history. Trump’s second administration is likely, among other measures, to seek to end automatic citizenship for children born in the US to undocumented migrants, reduce refugee admissions, and introduce a “merit-based” immigration system.

While the EU cannot intervene on matters between the US and Mexico directly, it should begin advocating for globally sound humanitarian policies – especially crucial given the bloc’s recent developments, such as the EU Migration Pact and the much-maligned Italy-Albania migration deal. Rather than propagate the image of migration being a security threat, the EU should work to ensure its members are not be tempted to follow the Trumpian path of an autocratic approach to population movement.

In the Middle East

During the presidential election campaign, both Trump and Kamala Harris reiterated their commitment to supporting Israel’s “right to self-defence.” But where Harris publicly called for better humanitarian aid for Gaza and a Middle East ceasefire, Trump promised “peace in the Middle East” without providing detailed plans and saw “eye to eye” with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Iran. Then, in October 2024, he urged Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.” Netanyahu is likely hoping that Trump’s return will loosen any restraints on Israel to pursue its war goals, provide support for him to challenge his recent arrest warrant for international war crimes, and create a smoother relationship with Washington which could help improve his own popular support.

In response, European nations must urgently stop selling arms to Israel, push the country to halt its attacks on Lebanon, and pressure Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. This is especially crucial given Trump’s historic stance on providing aid for Palestinians: for example, in 2018 Trump stopped all contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which previously depended on the US for around one-third of its budget. Trump is now willing – and able – to strengthen his relationship with Netanyahu; along with the nomination of Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel, the outlook for Palestine is bleak.

European governments should now collaborate closely with Arab states, including the Gulf monarchies – which hold sway in Washington and have reason to be concerned about further regional destabilisation – to advocate for a critical shift in US policy. Ideally, this would be in the form of a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. While Israel and Hezbollah recently negotiated a tentative ceasefire, the EU should still advocate for an overall ceasefire in Gaza

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The EU’s track record on human rights advocacy is not without its shortcomings – the migration policies of mainstream European political parties, marked by decades of externalisation, have also backfired. Now third states increasingly control migration flows and fringe parties dominate the anti-migration discourse, with Trump poised to adopt and worsen this approach. European governments need to ensure that their approach differs from Trumpian narratives; but also addresses the lessons learned from recent crises such as Ukraine. The EU should particularly focus on how to manage migration in a more humane way than its externalisation policies and aggressive deportation measures suggest.