Problem

If you blinked, you would have missed it. Such was the speed of the surprise military campaign launched by Syrian rebels last weekend. With regime forces melting away, the rebels have cast the country’s battle lines back to those last seen in 2016. They have seized all of the country’s second city of Aleppo for the first time and reignited the civil war, which was largely contained in the regime’s favour.

Many in Syria have welcomed the dramatic development in the hope that the regime’s moment of reckoning has finally arrived. But it would be premature to write the regime off. Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, who has long refused any negotiations, will not accept the loss of Aleppo, and the rebels will be unwilling to give up this prize. While Assad has little near-term prospect of recapturing Aleppo, he is remobilising and is likely to unleash new devastation on the rebels with the support of Russian air strikes and Iranian-backed forces. This is a foreboding prospect for those who remember the horrific first battle for Aleppo, which ended in the rebel retreat of 2016. A long and brutal fight likely lies ahead, worsening Syria’s humanitarian crisis and regional instability.

Many in Syria and internationally are also concerned by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the former al-Qaeda affiliate, which spearheaded the rebel campaign. While HTS has abandoned its transnational jihadist ambitions – in part to try and gain Western support – it remains a hardline conservative group. It has made efforts to reassure Aleppo’s minorities, but there are many who doubt this commitment. This includes Kurds, who fear Turkey’s ambition to use its ally, HTS, to dismantle the Kurdish position, a fight that could also give Islamic State in Syria space to regroup.

Solution

There are more questions than answers at this stage. Much will depend on how battle lines play out over the coming days. Europeans are rightly focused on the need to meet the political aspiration of the Syrian people without which there will be no real stability, but should concentrate their efforts on two immediate goals:

1. Protecting civilians and preventing a return to the full violence of the civil war, which will also provoke new refugee flows. Russia, Arab states, and even Iran, are engaging in intense diplomacy to try and negotiate a Syrian-Turkish understanding to contain the fighting. While rebel momentum has partly pulled the levers of control out of external hands, Europeans should support these efforts to prevent further escalation.
2. Ensuring HTS maintains a moderate position. While the group remains sanctioned, Europeans should engage using both carrots and sticks including through aid and sanctions, to secure a position that protects Syrians’ rights and prevents the north from becoming a new breeding ground for security threats. Europeans also have a strong interest in pressing HTS to not target Kurds, the West’s main partner in fighting ISIS.

Context

The collapse of Assad’s security forces was driven by the regime’s structural weaknesses, exacerbated by its unwillingness to make any compromises and meet the needs of the population. Turkey reportedly backed the rebel advance to pressure Assad into entering negotiations over the status of the country’s north to allow Syrian refugees in Turkey to return – talks Damascus rejected without a full Turkish retreat.

Syria is a central battleground in the wider regional war, with Israel’s military campaign against Iran including intense strikes in Syria. Iranian setbacks, compounded by Russia’s focus on Ukraine, meant that Assad’s key allies were unable to provide immediate support to repel the rebel advance. It is notable, however, that most Arab states are now lining up behind Assad rather than with the rebels.