Ursula von den Leyen’s new European Commission needs to achieve domestic public support for its green policies while navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. The rapid summer flooding which impacted several European countries illustrates how urgently the European Union should be addressing the impact of climate change on its member states – but the concerns of its citizens, such as on deregulation, should not be understated. A forthcoming report by former Finnish president Sauli Niinistö will be a starting point for the commission’s new preparedness commissioner, Hadja Lahbib, and other key players, in how to tackle such challenges. It will likely include recommendations on how to reduce dependencies on resource imports, manage water scarcity, and adapt infrastructure to a changing climate.

But it is not enough to simply provide suggestions for such measures. The commission’s legacy will depend on its ability to push forward vital green policies within a maelstrom of political and domestic discontent. The climate team’s members must also bridge political divides within the commission to deliver on its Green Deal promises. Whether it succeeds in this task will be closely scrutinised over the upcoming five-year term.

Climate collaboration

Von der Leyen has proposed a strong climate team, for which she is currently awaiting confirmation by the European Parliament. At the core are two experienced politicians from the Party of European Socialists – Spain’s Teresa Ribera and Denmark’s Dan Jørgensen – as well as France’s Stephane Sejourné and the Netherlands’s Wopke Hoekstra, both from the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP). Von der Leyen’s choices strike a political balance: she is well aware of the criticism from her own EPP party towards the earlier version of the EU’s Green Deal, which saw former executive vice-president – and social democrat – Frans Timmermans play a lead role.

In addition, the re-elected president has tasked every member of the European Commission with working together to ensure the EU can collectively reach the established climate targets for 2030 and 2050. These involve many areas, including agriculture, trade, and the EU budget, on which the commissioners need to cooperate constructively – as well as on the forthcoming Clean Industrial Deal, which will focus investment towards decarbonising energy-intensive sectors. Spain has negotiated well, and as executive vice president Ribera will play a key role in ensuring a “clean, just, and competitive transition.” Competition policy and state aid rules will be within Ribera’s remit, giving her a powerful portfolio where reforms are key to ensure a ‘green transition’ actually happens. Dan Jørgensen has an impressive record in promoting low-carbon transitions and will be responsible for energy and housing.

However, the EPP’s Sejourné and others in the climate team have also been given various responsibilities, creating the risk of ‘turf wars’. Von der Leyen must ensure any potential infighting does not jeopardise the EU’s chance of defining – and reaching – its multiple ambitious climate targets; or risk undermining the ability of the Green Deal mission to reach further afield than Europe.

Close to home

The first test for the new commission is when and how it will put forward a target for 2040. Von der Leyen has in principle committed to a proposal of 90 per cent emissions reduction, compared to the 1990 level. But it remains to be seen how quickly the legal proposal to amend the EU’s climate law and include this target will materialise, and if it will be linked to the Clean Industrial Deal; or if the commission leadership will find an excuse to first sound out the terrain the European Parliament, where the EPP group among others has doubts on its viability.

Pressure from parts of the car industry and the EPP  has also led to von der Leyen already indicating a softening of the suggested combustion engine ban for 2035. Now it is uncertain what will happen to the other parts of the Fit for 55 package that will also be under review – for example, the phasing out of free allowances for carbon-intensive industries. Such questions are again related to the content of the Clean Industrial Deal, where financing, skills development, and common principles for state aid are key. In this context, von der Leyen has also clarified the importance of focusing on resource efficiency: but scope remains for better synergy between the green transition and digital transition to further promote European industry, such as innovative use of AI to make power systems more efficient.

Another domestic challenge will be the introduction of the European Trading System for housing and transport (ETS2). Several EU capitals are fearful that the resultant higher prices for heating homes and fuelling cars will be politically damaging. This domestic uncertainty makes the link to ‘just’ transitions, as laid out in Ribera’s portfolio, important – and emphasises the role of new Romanian commissioner, Roxana Mînzatu, whose responsibilities include the Social Climate Fund. Given Ribera and Mînzatu’s focus on ensuring the green transition does not negatively impact vulnerable citizens or compromise quality of life, their contributions will be especially vital in ensuring the sustainability of the EU’s next long-term budget (Multiannual Financial Framework).

In addition, public support for EU climate policy is also dependent on von der Leyen’s wider competitiveness agenda, especially following the publication of former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi’s report. Trade unions and civil society actors have already voiced fears that strong emphasis on deregulation might reduce protections for workers, consumers, and nature, with a case in point being newly appointed environment commissioner Jessika Roswall’s dossier. It would be detrimental to EU public support for the commission to lower its ambitions on nature protection and the control of dangerous chemicals; but her tasks for ‘a competitive circular economy’ and water resilience are opportunities to move the green agenda forward. Roswall, and others, must therefore be prepared to combat external pushback and ensure the commission is able to bolster its green ambitions while promoting competitiveness as a key facet of its forthcoming administrative term.

Dream team for climate negotiations

The strong reputations of new commission climate team members such as Jørgensen, Ribera, and Hoekstra means they are in a good position to advance global negotiations. However, von der Leyen’s commitment to strengthening climate and energy diplomacy at the international level must be reflected in more staffing and better coordination across the relevant parts of the commission – especially since the outcome of America’s presidential election and changing EU relations with China will be key factors in determining future climate negotiations. But a showdown between the EU and its trading partners in the global south is also looming over trade-related EU measures, such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and deforestation regulation. A better partnership offer with developing countries can help defuse such conflicts as far as possible: new trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič should include broader development aspects, such as building resilient and beneficial supply chains, in his proposals for Clean Trade and Investments Partnerships.

Von der Leyen may have already assigned portfolios and sent ‘mission letters’, but her next challenge is to get European Parliament approval for the individual commissioners, and for the commission as a whole. The parliament might demand some changes, but it should give final approval during November or early December. It is unclear if everything in the mission letters, including on climate, will materialise – and it is uncertain how potential turbulence during the commission’s upcoming term, such as a mid-term reshuffle, might impact the EU’s green agenda. Many other factors are at play in shaping EU climate action: while, in 2019, a ‘green wave’ rolled over Europe, this year’s focus on the competitiveness of European industry is giving rise to concerns over regulation. There has also been a shift to the right in the European Parliament and the EPP has a majority in the new commission – both political developments could conspire to reduce ambitions in climate policy.

But, as it stands, von der Leyen’s new appointments are a good start. A key factor in the development of the EU climate policy will be her personal leadership, and the extent to which she sees her legacy as tied to the success of the newly refined Green Deal. Much depends on whether von der Leyen and Teresa Ribera find a working relationship; and if the EPP will continue to support von der Leyen if she sticks to her current course on climate action. So, while the proposed commission has a strong framework through which it can advance its climate agenda, the most important factor in its success will be the European Commission president herself.